Your Guide to Prepping for El Niño
"Super El Niño" is all over the news. No one knows yet how wet this winter will be, but you won’t regret being over prepared. Here's what it means for your home, whether you're staying put, buying, or selling this winter.
If you need a trusted roofer, drainage contractor, or inspector, send me a text and I'd be happy to share my vendor list 415-770-0999.
What to expect
This could be a record event. As of mid-September, the key Pacific ocean region that scientists track was already 2°C (3.6°F) above average, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts it to peak around 3.4°C above average this winter. NOAA puts the odds at 75% that this will be the strongest El Niño since 1950.
Rain is likely, but not guaranteed. NOAA says above-normal rainfall is more likely in the Bay Area this winter and spring. The heaviest rain is expected to build late, peaking January through March 2027.
It only takes one storm. Even in El Niño years that turned out drier than predicted, single storms have caused major flooding here. Harvard climate scientist Peter Huybers expects rain patterns that are new and harder to predict. That's one more reason to prepare for more than the forecast alone suggests.
Higher tides on the coast. El Niño could raise sea levels by half a foot or more, so areas like Pacifica and San Francisco that already flood during king tides could see worse flooding.
The state is preparing. Governor Newsom has declared a state of emergency to boost El Niño preparations.
For every homeowner
Around the house (do this in October)
Clean gutters and point downspouts away from the foundation
Sweep leaves off the storm drain in front of your house
Have a roofer check flashing and seals
Look for water stains or white chalky residue in the garage or ground floor, and test your sump pump if you have one
Trim branches that hang over your roof
Need a roofer, gutter cleaner, or drainage contractor? Send me a text and I’d be happy to share my list of trusted local vendors 415-770-0999.
Sandbags and flood help resources
SF residents can pick up 10 free sandbags, Monday through Saturday, 8 a.m. to 2 p.m., at the Public Works yard (Kansas and Marin Streets). Make sure to bring proof of address.
In San Mateo County, if you’re located in a city (Daly City, Westlake, San Mateo, Pacifica, and others): check your city's website for pickup sites. Residents in unincorporated areas (El Granada, La Honda, Montara, and others) can pick up to 15 free pre-made sandbags per winter season. If you’re unsure if you’re in an incorporated area, look up your address here.
Check SF's Storm and Flood Hazard Map to see your flood risk.
In flood-prone areas, SFPUC offers grants of up to $100,000 for flood protection.
Insurance
Standard homeowners policies generally don't cover flooding.
National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) flood insurance usually takes 30 days to kick in, so consider calling your agent now before a storm hits.
Alerts and supplies
Sign up for AlertSF by texting your zip code to 888-777.
Text STORM to 20202 for United Way's five-day storm prep guide.
Store 1 gallon of water per person per day. Start with three days' worth and work up to two weeks.
Keep flashlights and a charged backup battery on hand for outages.
If you're planning to sell
Fix roof and drainage issues before listing. It's cheaper than a repair credit in escrow, and buyers will appreciate and value the peace of mind. OWN's Renovation Program can front the cost of the work, so you won’t need to pay out of pocket.
Disclose any water history. No one likes surprises. It’s important to be transparent and disclose any documented, repaired leaks in the home.
Shoot listing photos this fall while the weather is dry.
Don't count out winter. Fewer listings means less competition, and winter buyers tend to be serious and motivated.
If you're considering buying
Tour in the rain if you can. Check the garage floor, window sills, and where the downspouts drain.
Read the Natural Hazard Disclosure to see if the home is in a flood zone and how the location may impact your insurance.
On hillside or coastal homes (Daly City, Westlake, Pacifica), ask about drainage, retaining walls, and soil. In SF, consider a sewer lateral inspection.
Use the season. Less competition in the winter months can mean more room to negotiate.
The bottom line
A little prep now goes a long way. For vendor referrals or questions about a specific property or neighborhood, reach out to me anytime!