Rates Ease but Job Cuts Mount: What’s Shaping Housing Now
Real estate never stands still — it responds to every ripple in the economy. Staying on top of these changes can help you spot opportunities and make well-timed decisions, whether you’re buying, selling, or investing.
Mortgage Rates Dip to 6.19% for 30-Year Fixed, Lowest in Weeks
The 30-year fixed fell to 6.19%, with 15-year at 5.44%, following softer labor data—though still about 50 bps above September lows.
Refinance applications rose 3% WoW, showing borrowers are reacting quickly to small rate declines.
Lower rates improve affordability by roughly $30/month on a $400K loan, supporting stronger demand and potentially boosting Q1 sales by 4–5%, though overall affordability remains historically tight.
Layoff Announcements Surge Past 1.1M YTD, Highest Since 2020 Pandemic
Employers announced 71,321 layoffs in November, bringing 2025’s total to 1.17M—the highest YTD level since 2020, led by retail and tech.
Weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 191K, though likely distorted by holiday timing; hiring plans are down 35% y/y.
Rising layoffs can dampen buyer confidence and may increase distressed inventory by 5–7%; if labor weakness continues, the Fed could cut sooner, potentially bringing mortgage rates ~10 bps lower and saving buyers ~$80/month on a median home.
10-Year Treasury Yield Climbs to 4.14% Amid Fed Cut Anticipation
The 10-year Treasury rose to 4.14%, up 5 bps week-over-week, while the 2-year dipped to 3.56% after cooler PCE data; the curve steepened slightly.
Investors are weighing stronger growth against labor risks, with the 30-year yield reaching 4.79% ahead of expected Fed action.
Higher yields keep mortgage spreads wide, adding roughly $10/month per $100K borrowed; a Fed cut could cap yields near 4.1%, helping stabilize jumbo and commercial lending markets.
In 2025, San Mateo County single-family home prices ranged from roughly $2.4M to $3M, peaking in the spring and again at year-end, showing strong and stable demand with typical seasonal fluctuations.
In 2025, San Francisco single-family home prices ranged roughly from $1.9M to $2.5M, with peaks in early spring and late fall, reflecting a stable but slightly more variable market compared to San Mateo County.
I hope this market snapshot was valuable. Staying informed helps you make confident decisions about your real estate goals.
If you’d like to discuss your options in more detail, I’d be glad to schedule a quick call or meeting: https://calendar.app.google/452Mk3CcRPuXhVm6A